What impact will ‘Brexit’ have on the animal product export trade?

The referendum vote was a landmark moment for the UK. The wheels have been set in motion, as the UK prepares to leave the European Union. But this move has raised more questions than answers. What happens next? And what are the implications for the export of animal products like meat, hides, skins and dairy products to the EU and the rest of the world?

As we have a very good relationship with the veterinary team at APHA (Animal & Plant Health Agency) in Carlisle, we asked them for their thoughts – although they too believe that there is a lot of uncertainty ahead.

What we know will happen

Nothing is likely to change in the short term – when article 50 of the Treaty on European Union is ‘triggered’ there will be a negotiation period of at least 2 years before the UK withdraws. There’s no precedent for a country withdrawing. Greenland left in 1984 but remained an OCT (Overseas Country & Territory).
The fall in the value of sterling – is likely to be good news for exporters in the short term while increasing the price of imports.

What might happen

Continuing trade links between the EU and UK – as import and export is such big business between the UK and EU it’s likely that both sides will want a mutually beneficial agreement. The UK may leave the EU ‘single market’ but try and negotiate access to it – the terms of which are very much unknown as yet.
Other tariffs and options – membership of other areas such as EFTA (European Free Trade Area), EEA (European Economic Area) or the EU Customs Union may be possible but may still require a net contribution to the EU budget, compromise on the free movement of people and acceptance of EU standards and rules. Alternatively, we may have to accept WTO (World Trade Organisation) agreed tariffs unless a bespoke deal can be reached.
New international trade agreements – media reports suggest that countries like India, China, USA, Canada, South Korea, Jordan, New Zealand and Australia want to negotiate trade agreements with the UK. However, it remains to be seen whether the advantage of negotiating 1-2-1 with countries outweighs the benefit of the scale and economic might that being part of the EU offered.
New export health certificates – new agreements with the EU and individual countries will probably mean that new export health certificates will need drawing up and approving in the future.

As the UK enters the unknown, the next 2 years at least should remain business as usual with no changes to the export health certificate process. Although the drop in sterling could see the export of UK animal products grow. After that, there could be a flurry of new documents and legislation to get used to.

At Amivet, we will continue to work very closely with APHA, the Department of International Trade (DIT) and industry bodies to help the UK animal product export trade to grow. We will also keep you updated regularly about any new developments.

Witten by Andrew Iveson on 19th August 2016 and tagged in